Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. 21 RB Sleepers. J.D. The fact is, he never . Williams can still be a great producer, but at his ADP, I won't be drafting him when he isn't getting the bulk of the touches. Thurman Thomas 14. In college, he played wide receiver as much as (if not more than) running back. Andy Hicks: The Broncos dont seem overly excited to use Melvin Gordon III this year. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. He doesnt have that much of a skill set difference with Malcolm Brown and Salvon Ahmed either. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland | Consensus Rankings RB21 | Consensus Projections RB22. I have seen Bettis crack the top 20 and even top 10 of some lists, and this is inexplicable. Deion Sanders tops the list of overrated cornerbacks. The additions of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Curtis Samuel, Dyami Brown, and a healthy Antonio Gibson should blunt his numbers and make his season look more like 2020's first half when he averaged 4.7 targets and 3.6 receptions per game instead of his second half when he saw 8.6 targets and 6.1 catches an outing. On top of these issues, the Texans added Rex Burkhead, Mark Ingram II, and Philip Lindsay to compete for touches. There are no guarantees he fits with what Atlanta wants to do or whether he has the endurance to handle a workload after last year's use. Even last year, as the Panthers starter, he averaged just 3.9 yards-per-carry. Andy Hicks: Austin Ekeler isnt going to rush anyone to a fantasy title. Ben Cummins: Im a big fan of Antonio Gibsons talent, but he will have to overcome a lot of hurdles to pay off his current ADP. 9 out of the 13 years Bettis played in the NFL he averaged less than 4 yards per carry. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Single Sigmund Bloom: Swift is surely more likely than Jamaal Williams to be the hot hand in the Detroit backfield, but Swift's ADP is too high for any back that has to rely on the hot hand approach to get the majority of the volume in the backfield. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. Weve seen flashes of Raheem Mostert over the last couple of years feasting in this offense, but its sporadic and challenging to predict. He's playing for his fifth team in seven seasons and has never been an instinctive runner. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. Ben Cummins: Robinson was an awesome story in 2020 as he just kept producing while seeing 21.43 opportunities per game (6th most in the league) from Weeks 1-16. The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. Barkley could hit on pure talent and above-average recuperative ability, but everything else is going against him to return value on his lofty ADP. Take Carter later as a committee back with some possible upside, but he's being overvalued by drafters right now. His ADP has been climbing recently, and while his price says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, he's still being overvalued at his current price. Dave Kluge: To close out the 2020 season, Cam Akers saw 21, 29, 15, and 21 carries over his last four games. I'll pass on Barkley at cost. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. First, Johnson turns 30 in December, and considering all the injuries he's dealt with in his NFL career, it's hard to see him aging well. When we go into advanced stats, we can tell even more about Bettis: * Note: The stats are Bettis averages per season, not total career. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. J.D. The Ravens have also continued to trust Gus Edwards and have kept the backfield intact as a true timeshare. Emmitt Smith 4. Tevin Coleman is one of those veteran thorns in the sides of young backs to garner touches. The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. Cohen is strictly limited to passing-down work, and the numbers suggest that he isn't outstanding in that role either. Jonathan Morris: I can't endorse a high pick on Javonte Williams when he will yield a lot of work to Melvin Gordon III. Jason Wood: Preseason depth charts aren't perfectly predictive, but the new Texans coaching staff clearly sent a message listing Johnson as the No. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. The next season he hit bottom with a knee injury that damaged his ACL, MCL, and meniscus. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. McKissic. Gibson has also been struggling with fumbles in training camp, which have drawn the ire of the Commanders coaching staff. Adrian Peterson 10. This was largely in line with his previous year's number of 10.7 per game, allowing him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. DYAR: 96 DVOA: 0.085% His average DYAR of 96 would rank him 24th in the NFL in 2009, right ahead of Laurence Maroney. LaDainian Tomlinson 6. Before McKissic was injured with a concussion in Week 12, which forced him to miss the remainder of the season, Gibson was only getting targeted 2.6 times per game. He and Ameer Abdullah -- who played over Kenyan Drake in the first preseason game -- could take away tons of receiving work, while White is capable of obtaining shots around the goal line. Malcolm Brown has also been an underrated commodity for some time now and gets a shot to compete with Gaskin for significant playing time. That looks like a mistake from where the situation sits now. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. Dave Kluge: Sure, youre not giving up any crazy draft capital to get J.D. Expect a more even split in touches than many are forecasting and potentially for Brown to earn the lead role. Phil Alexander: Beware of drafting running backs based solely on their perceived opportunity. Most overrated players in Madden 21 J.J. Watt, defensive end, Houston Texans. There's just not enough upside here to justify taking Johnson anywhere near his ADP and no expectation of consistency in Johnson's usage or the Texans' ability to move the ball week to week. Chase Edmonds, Arizona | Consensus Rankings RB25 | Consensus Projections RB23. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB26 | Consensus Projections RB26. Overrated David Boston -- WR, 1999-02 Boston was a former first-round pick by the Cardinals who had an epic Pro Bowl /All-Pro season in 2001 when he caught 98 passes for nearly 1,600 yards and. Swift also picked up bad footwork habits working alongside a different style of back in Adrian Peterson last year, opting for inefficient jump cuts that hurt his game. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY = adjusted line yards, PSR = power success rank, SR = stuff ranking Average ADY: 4.29 Average PSR: 11th Average SR: 9th * These stats werent kept until 1996, so this doesnt include Bettis first 3 years in the NFL. Given Russell Wilson's historical propensity to score rushing touchdowns in goal-line situations, it's hard to get overly excited about Williams, particularly in PPR formats. A veteran, a trade, or another team's roster cut is more likely to be the bigger threat. Color me skeptical Sanders has a new ceiling for receiving production with Scott and Gainwell passing game-centric options, and Howard could be a goal-line option. Phil Alexander: Drew Brees is arguably the best screen game quarterback in NFL history. He's a strong talent with some flaws with a better all-around back ahead of him. When Melvin Gordon III re-signed, many dismissed him as purely a backup player. But the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon III, which cannot be interpreted as anything short of a re-commitment to a 50/50 committee. Gibson is more likely to lose his job than return a significant profit on his draft price. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB15. James Brimacombe: I view Melvin Gordon III this season a lot like I viewed Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville last offseason. 5 / 30. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. Pat Fitzmaurice: This is the type of player I won't draft at any cost. Now, if the right-back fully lived up to his potential, then he could have been a Man City great. NFL career: 1988-91, all with Cincinnati Bengals (4 seasons) Statistics/16 games: 659.5 rush yards/4.6 yards per . J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB16 | Consensus Projections RB17. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. James Robinson, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB29 | Consensus Projections RB30. . With an almost entirely new coaching staff, quarterback and receivers, it is difficult to trust that Swift will be worth his asking price. While he can certainly put up some strong fantasy weeks, the savvier move would be to wait for the younger backs later in the draft. I believe he should be elected because he was able to maintain a good level of consistency throughout his 13 years. We don't yet know how much of Kamara's past success as a pass-catcher to attribute to Brees. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. J.K. McKissic, Washington | Consensus Rankings RB47 | Consensus Projections RB45.