108,000 people. 3. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 116,093Republicans 89,644Unaffiliated: 86,703. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. 2016 Election (1135) Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". All rights reserved. In each of the past three presidential elections, Arizona has had four consistently Democratic counties (Apache, Coconino, Pima, Santa Cruz) and 11 Republican ones (Cochise, Gila, Graham, Greenlee, La Paz, Maricopa, Mohave, Navajo, Pinal, Yavapai and Yuma). We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. There are a total of 3,142 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1]. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Until this year. Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). Jeff. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. . A caveat: because its black population is higher than the state average (21 percent versus 13 percent), the county has gone narrowly for Democrats even in 2004 and 2000 when George W. Bush won the state. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. 2023 BBC. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. Watch this populous county, home to Manchester. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Obama won comfortably here in 2008 but only squeaked to victory four years later. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. 6. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-46% - 2008: McCain 52%-47%. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. A bellwether county that includes Canton, its part of a heavily blue collar region where Trumps message could resonate. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. These counties could play an . They're just facts about the vote. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. 3. Below are 10 bellwether counties that could give signs as to how the electorate feels this cycle and in future races. 5. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. It almost became religious.". Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Hillary Clinton (578) For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. Contributors wanted In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! That report was issued on Nov. 12. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Thank you for supporting our journalism. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Have information that relates to fraud in this election? So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Our fact check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? The divisions were everywhere. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . 9. It abuts Clevelands Cuyahoga County to the east and went narrowly to Mitt Romney in 2012. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Website Updates Paused That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. The statistic on counties comes from a report bytheBrookings Institution on Nov. 10. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Those places will get the bulk of the presidential candidates time and their surrounding media markets will get the bulk of the television ad spending. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. "We had to quietly move our parade," she says. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. Found an error on our site? This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. But both are worth watching. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Until this year. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. For a minute in this campaign, it looked like it could be a fairly close race in Texas, even within 5 points. This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Their emotions and decision making process are real. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread.