But even with all this seismic activity, the state's three major fault lines have remained eerily quiet. CoreLogicestimates with Southern San Andreas Fault rupture will cause 3.5 million homes to be at risk with $289 billion in reconstruction value. In Southern California, the main strands are the Southern San Andreas fault, theSan Jacinto fault, and the Elsinore fault. 421 earthquakes in the past 365 days. "We know some of you felt shaking and we hope you took a protective action like Drop, Cover, and Hold On," USGS ShakeAlert added. More than 400 fires could ignite, burning the equivalent of 52,000 single-family homes, and a lack of water for firefighters caused by old pipes shattering underground could make matters worse, researchers said. (8.2 miles), 2023-02-17 08:46:00 UTC Large aftershocks can occur for months, years and even decades in a broad region, with a mega-quake potentially ushering in a generation of heightened seismic activity. Disruptions in water, electricity and communications could last weeks. The USGS Seismic Hazard Maps website and the Unified Hazard Tool (for building custom maps) are designed to display the probability of different events that might occur in a several-year to several-decade period. Sunday mornings earthquake was described as more violent this time, Rio Dell Mayor Debra Garnes told CNN in an interview. What is a seismic hazard map? San Andreas runs through Palmdale and San Bernandino 37 miles from L.A. (8.2 miles), 2023-02-11 06:05:16 UTC Internationally recognized for excellence in geophysical research and academics while also having outstanding facilities in seismic networks, high performance computing, and mineral physics, makes the Seismo Lab an ideal place for study and research. Wednesday weather updates:Winter storm forecast to reach East Coast after crossing the country. A landmark report by the U.S. Geological Survey in 2018 estimates that at least 800 people could be killed and 18,000 more injured in a magnitude 7 earthquake on the Hayward fault centered below Oakland. (Must be before the quake - postdictions don't count.) On April 18, 1906, an earthquake and subsequent fires devastated San Francisco, California, leaving more than 3,000 people dead and destroying more than 28,000 buildings. Earthquake Prediction Issues and Concerns Social utility of earthquake prediction Possible negative consequences Generic questions for public policy Changes in the Time Parameters of Predictions PAGE vi i i ix II. In addition, we have created some other Foreign Hazard Maps for Afghanistan, Haiti, South America, Southeast Asia and the State of Gujarat, India. at 00:13 February 23, 2023 UTC, Location: Consider the following facts when, not if, a large Los Angeles earthquake hits: CEAs affordable earthquake insurance policies let you select the coverage that fits your budget. Los Angeles isn't directly on the fault line. Home Gardens Source: FEMA News. There is75% probabilityof one or more magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes striking Southern California, based on a 30-year period, beginning in 2014. That means the Santa Monica Bay quake, roughly 250 miles from the southernmost end of the ruptured San Andreas fault, would be considered an aftershock of the 1906 San Francisco quake. This includes blind thrust faults, like the quake along the Raymond fault that destroyed homes in Northridge in 1994. The Ridgecrest earthquakes followed a 25-year "quiet period" after Northridge. NOTE: In the event of an earthquake, the safest place to be is not in a doorway, but under a table or desk. In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, about 200 soft-story buildings collapsed, including one apartment building in which 16 people died. The East Anatolian also accumulates energy at a slower rate than the California and North Anatolian faults. An earthquake rattled parts of Northern California on Sunday for the second time in two weeks. Epicenter at 33.807, -118.365 at 10:26 February 20, 2023 UTC, Location: The chances of experiencing shaking from an earthquake and/or having property damage is dependent on many different factors. In Northern California, San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland have such laws on the books as well. The California ShakeOut is just a drill. Los Angeles . "How many times have they posted a prediction? Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information, Heres what would happen if a huge quake hit Los Angeles. 7 earthquakes in the past 7 days. (1.2 miles), 2023-02-23 08:14:50 UTC Yucaipa But California has experienced quakes of that magnitude and greater and scientists have spent years developing simulations of how The Big One would play out in the Golden State. LOS ANGELES CA US 90071-3173: Primary Place of Performance Congressional District: 34: . Is it safe to go to X since they've been having a lot of earthquakes lately? For instance, the great 1906 earthquake ruptured a vast swath of the northern San Andreas fault, from Humboldt County near Eureka, through the San Francisco Bay Area and approaching San Benito County, east of Monterey. Greater Los Angeles Area, California has had: (M1.5 or greater) 1 earthquake in the past 24 hours. Epicenter at 34.402, -118.992 Last year, researchers concluded that a pair of major southern California quakes in 2019, registering 6.4 and 7.1 magnitudes, slightly raised the chances the Big One could strike, though the probability remains low, with about a 1 per cent chance of a major quake along the San Andreas over the next year. But quiet period wont last, An earthquake the size of Turkeys would bring devastation, death to Southern California, Why some huge earthquakes cause great destruction while others do little damage, Desperate mountain residents trapped by snow beg for help; We are coming, sheriff says, Hidden, illegal casinos are booming in L.A., with organized crime reaping big profits. A magnitude 7.71 aftershock could affect communities such as Palm Springs, Palm Desert, Rancho Mirage, Coachella, Thermal, Mecca, Imperial Valley, Brawley and El Centro. 316 earthquakes in the past 365 days. California. at 00:23 February 05, 2023 UTC, Location: The scientists studying the powerful earthquakes that devastated parts of Turkey and Syria this month may bring new insights to a seismic zone that is strikingly similar: the San Andreas Fault in California. Government disaster assistance, if available, may only come in the form of a small grant or capped loan, which may cover only a portion of your repair costs and may need to be repaid. This prediction most likely came from: a geologist A scientist announces that the best possible chance for finding life on other bodies within our solar system would be on Jupiter's moon Europa. Latest Earthquakes 4.6 129 km SSW of La Esperanza (El Zapotal), Mexico 2023-03-02 03:58:55 (UTC-08:00) 32.8 km 3.0 6km SE of Lake Pillsbury, CA 2023-03-02 03:54:33 (UTC-08:00) 9.6 km 4.5 Mindoro, Philippines 2023-03-02 01:51:39 (UTC-08:00) 130.6 km 2.8 3 km WNW of El Moro, Colorado 2023-03-02 01:09:37 (UTC-08:00) 7.4 km 4.5 According to theU.S. Geological Survey and the Los Angeles Fire Department, the earthquake occurred at 2 a.m. PT. . Official websites use .gov Spirit pointed to a map showing, Bakersfield, Los Angeles area. Los Angeles and Big Sur on the Pacific Plate. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake would be so powerful that it causes widespread damage and consequently affects lives and livelihoods of all southern Californians. Los Angeles County. In Californias recent history there have only been two quakes as powerful as the first Turkish one the 7.9-magnitude San Francisco earthquake in 1906, and the Fort Tejon quake of 1857, which had a similar estimated magnitude and affected an area from the central part of the state southward to the east of Los Angeles. Los Angeles earthquakes also happen on quiet faults. Major earthquakes along the San Andreas fault happen every 200 to 300 years. On November 13, 2008, over 5 million Southern Californians pretended that the magnitude-7.8 ShakeOut scenario earthquake was occurring and practiced actions derived from results of the ShakeOut Scenario, to reduce the impact of a real, San Andreas Fault event. 30 percent chance of a 7.5-magnitude earthquake, have found shelter on a 538-foot luxury boat. Can the USGS send someone out to evaluate my property? Whatever the main shock magnitude is, you should expect the largest aftershock to be about one magnitude unit smaller, she said. Experts have long warned that a significantly larger quake will eventually strike and that the toll will be far greater. The East and North Anatolian and the San Andreas are all transform faults, products of the stresses that build at the boundary where one of the Earths large crustal plates slowly moves past another. But a Times analysis in 2018 found that there were as many as 640 unreinforced masonry buildings in more than a dozen Inland Empire cities, including Riverside, Pomona and San Bernardino, that have been marked as dangerous but remained unretrofitted despite decades of warnings. The 5.4-magnitude quake was centered about 30 miles south of Eureka. Epicenter at 34.05, -117.251 The Hayward fault is so dangerous because it runs through some of the most heavily populated parts of the Bay Area, spanning the length of the East Bay from the San Pablo Bay through Berkeley, Oakland, Hayward, Fremont and into Milpitas. The last two big earthquakes to strike Los Angeles the 1971 Sylmar quake and 1994 Northridge quake caused destruction and loss of life. What is the probability that an earthquake is a foreshock to a larger earthquake? EarthquakePrediction @Quakeprediction Earthquake prediction California, Alaska, Japan, Greece and Italy. Start your Independent Premium subscription today. A seismic hazard zone describes an area with a particular level of hazard due to earthquakes. All large earthquakes are followed over days, months and even years by aftershocks, which often number in the thousands. How many times did a quake actually happen? But its what everybody wants to know, adding, But just because we can create a plausible scenario does not mean its going to happen.. 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake. Los Angeles FC wrapped up their pre-season round of fixtures with a convincing 3-1 triumph over USL Championship side San Diego Loyal on February 19. Nevertheless, in the 16 years since that publication there has not been a substantial quake in the Los Angeles area, and two major reports issued by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have made variable predictions as to the risk of future seismic events. Follow this computer simulation "San Andreas Earthquake Scenario" to view a 186-mile rupture from Bombay Beach to Lake Hughes. Epicenter at 34.022, -117.224 Map Information How do earthquakes get on these maps? Yet, the last one struck in 1918. Los Angeles has had: (M1.5 or greater) 1 earthquake in the past 24 hours. at 10:33 February 18, 2023 UTC, Location: A highway collapsed in Los Angeles from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. As many as 270,000 . However, asking if it's safe to travel somewhere because of recent earthquakes is Worldwide the probability that an earthquake will be followed within 3 days by a large earthquake nearby is somewhere just over 6%. A magnitude 4.2 earthquake shook Southern California early Wednesday, officials said. For all the devastation of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, it was centered off the coast in the Pacific Ocean. The stuck section slips, and the edge of each block catches up to the rest of the plate. >99%. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS (8.2 miles), 2023-02-06 07:00:42 UTC Therefore, an individual site study is necessary. USGS has estimated that there is a Los Angeles earthquake probability of a 75% likelihood of one or more magnitude 7.5 or greater quakes striking in the next thirty years, as of 2014. 1.2 km from How are they made? Epicenter at 34.052, -118.931 The last earthquake in California occurred 6 minutes ago: Minor mag. Learn more about major faults, capable of causing extensive ground shaking: The shaking from a major earthquake can move almost everything inside your home. III. Epicenter at 34.243, -117.838 Epicenter at 34.123, -117.47 Rong-Gong Lin II is a Metro reporter based in San Francisco who specializes in covering statewide earthquake safety issues and the COVID-19 pandemic. Low-level earthquakes have continually shook Los Angeles this year, but its still unclear when The Big One will strike. Search-and-rescue workers from Los Angeles have returned from Turkey after spending weeks assisting in the aftermath of the region's massive earthquake, which killed tens of thousands of people and displaced hundreds of thousands more. In the Turkey quake, thousands of buildings were reported to have collapsed in a wide area extending from the Syrian cities of Aleppo and Hama to Turkeys Diyarbakir, more than 200 miles to the northeast. (1.2 miles), 2023-02-23 13:30:26 UTC You may have heard sirens or gotten alerts as part of the Great California ShakeOut. That may help them better understand the potential strength and location of future quakes in California. This of course translates into a massive 9.8 earthquake in California on May 28 at roughly 4 p.m. As skeptical as we may be, he did (sort of) predict the rise and fall of Hitler and the 9/11 . 5.2 km from On Monday morning,Quake Predictionspublished a warning that read for the next two days there is a dangerous situation of the likelihood of a 7.0-magnitude in the San Francisco Bay to NW of Los Angeles area., 48 hour warning (Dangerous situation) WARNING: 7.0 earthquake is likely in the San Francisco Bay to NW of Los Angeles area 01/02 to 01/03- (huge quake signal just hit California) https://t.co/VMyuA1uw32 pic.twitter.com/goGyalmLFc, EarthquakePrediction (@Quakeprediction) January 2, 2023. Look up: The 32 most spectacular ceilings in Los Angeles, This fabled orchid breeder loves to chat just not about Trader Joes orchids, Newsom, IRS give Californians until October to file tax returns, Best coffee city in the world? Villa Park Located 11 miles SSW of Trona on 2/28/23, 5:30 AM. The destruction from the magnitude 7.8 earthquake that struck Turkey on Monday is so widespread and intense it is hard to fathom. at 08:46 February 17, 2023 UTC, Location: Its therefore plausible that a magnitude 8.2 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, rupturing from near the Mexican border, through Los Angeles County and ending in Monterey County, could result in a subsequent earthquake in San Francisco, Jones said. ", The Twitter account, which has about 45,700 followers, is connected to the website quakeprediction.com, which claims: "We have been researching earthquake prediction since 2005," adding, "We are not associated with the USGS earthquake prediction site. My refrigerator moved two feet. What did Disney actually lose from its Florida battle with DeSantis? at 23:35 February 12, 2023 UTC, Location: Many factors influence the strength of earthquake shaking at a site including the earthquake's magnitude, the site's proximity to the fault, the local geology, and the soil type. But on average, a quake of magnitude 6.0 or larger is likely to hit somewhere in Southern California every few years. Imminent Threat: Alerts issued when an imminent threat to life or property exists in your area, including severe man-made or natural disasters such as earthquakes, wild fires, hurricanes, and tornadoes. Extra 20% off selected fashion and sportswear at Very, Up to 20% off & extra perks with Booking.com Genius Membership, $6 off a $50+ order with this AliExpress discount code, 10% off selected orders over 100 - eBay discount code, Compare broadband packages side by side to find the best deal for you, Compare cheap broadband deals from providers with fastest speed in your area, All you need to know about fibre broadband, Best Apple iPhone Deals in the UK March 2023, Compare iPhone contract deals and get the best offer this March, Compare the best mobile phone deals from the top networks and brands. Muscoy Running Springs at 22:27 February 15, 2023 UTC, Location: at 22:53 February 11, 2023 UTC, Location: Quakes have contributed to the downfalls of ancient civilizations in China and the Middle East. USGS names the prime Earth movers as the San Andreas Fault, the Calaveras Fault, and the Hayward Fault. Dr. Stein, who with colleagues has analyzed the changes caused by the first quake, said that it altered stresses on a secondary fault, the Surgu, that is estimated to be about 200 miles long and runs at an angle to the East Anatolian. The company that got it just before Northridge hit was impressed," she recalled, referring to the magnitude 6.7 earthquake that struck the San Fernando Valley in 1994. 3.2 km from Probabilities and forecasts are comparable to climate probabilities and weather forecasts, while predictions are more like statements of when, where, and how large, which is not yet possible for earthquakes. JPL geophysicist Dr. Andrea Donnellan, along with seven other scientists, has been using . The time between big quakes seems to be Poissonian - that means the time since the last quake doesnt matter., Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies. Brittle concrete: L.A. has made slow progress on getting brittle concrete buildings retrofitted. Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. Los Angeles County could suffer the highest death toll, more than 1,000, followed by Orange County, with more than 350 dead. The earthquake zones have much in common, with one long, major fault and scores of smaller, secondary ones. According to the U.S. Geological Survey and the Los Angeles Fire Department, the earthquake. A house destroyed by the Northridge earthquake. OPINION (MS) - We just witnessed the largest earthquakes to hit California in decades, and this has caused many to search for prophecies regarding even more destructive California earthquakes in the future. Ground shaking is the primary cause of earthquake damage to man-made structures. But in each case, rather than a single fault, they are actually fault zones, riddled with scores of shorter faults oriented in many different directions. (3.2 miles), 2023-02-18 10:54:21 UTC Without residential earthquake insurance you will be responsible for all repair and/or rebuilding costs. When a reporter asked if the quake had been predicted, Tom calmly replied 'Not yet.' The ability to predict major earthquakes with sufficient precision to warrant increased . You can add the coverage today, no need to wait until your home policy comes up for renewal. 9.2 km from at 07:00 February 06, 2023 UTC, Location: Things came out of the refrigerator. Los Angeles area: Within the next 30 years the probability is: 60% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 6.7 46% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7 31% that an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5 will occur in the Los Angeles region. 4.2 km from Epicenter at 33.948, -117.818 Sign up for our trending newsletter to get the latest news of the day. Ojai L.A. hits $1-billion earthquake milestone: 8,000 buildings retrofitted, These are some of the major earthquake risks facing California, L.A.s many dangerous faults pose challenge for earthquake early warning system, Why some huge earthquakes cause great destruction while others do little damage, Desperate mountain residents trapped by snow beg for help; We are coming, sheriff says, Hidden, illegal casinos are booming in L.A., with organized crime reaping big profits. But I wouldnt have put any money on that being the next to go.. The trouble is the uncertainties on all the numbers in this sequence are huge, Seth Stein of Northwestern University told Science Magazine. But the worst damage was concentrated in relatively. 11.2 km from The aftershock, which released less than 1 percent of the energy of the 7.8 quake, was within the range of aftershocks that would be expected, said Debi Kilb, a researcher at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography who studies aftershocks. at 21:08 February 13, 2023 UTC, Location: A catastrophe is a disaster that runs amok when a society is not prepared for the amount of disruption that occurs, the report said. According to unpublished data gathered by MyShake, on September 19, 2020, during a 4.5-magnitude quake east of Los Angeles, ninety per cent of alerted users received their warning before the. (2.2 miles). California has an average of five earthquakes per year with magnitudes between 5 and 6, according to LATimes. For more information about hazard maps for other locations outside of the U.S. visit the GEM (Global Earthquake Earthquake engineers are working to make roads and buildings safer in the event of major earthquakes. But that might not leave L.A. in the clear. That 6.7-magnitude quake killed 57 people and caused an estimated $20 billion in damage. Contact 211 for less urgent matters. A magnitude 4.2 earthquake struck early Wednesday . Earthquake forecasts are based on research from (2005 to 2023) earthquakechannel@yahoo.com Science & Technology California Prediction quakeprediction.com Joined May 2009 5 Following 54.9K Followers Tweets Tweets & replies Media Likes 801 K Street, Suite 1000
Extended periods without essential utilities such as water and gas? The Southern San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California, slicing through Los Angeles County along the north side of the San Gabriel Mountains. San Jose Earthquakes have a good record against Los Angeles Galaxy and have won 28 out of the 67 matches played between the two teams, as opposed to Los Angeles Galaxy's 24 victories. Earthquake prediction has been a hope since the ground shifted beneath ancient peoples. This includes both improving the design of new buildings and bridges as well as strengthening older units to incorporate the latest advances in seismic and structural engineering. Hundreds more could die from fire following a quake along the 52-mile fault. 6.2 km from - 10/26 to 10/27 - (most likely on the morning of 10/27) - http . How will my house hold up in an earthquake? at 17:10 March 03, 2023 UTC, Location: Earthquake scientists say that a subsequent quake that is generated one ruptured fault length away from the mainshock can be considered an aftershock. This event would cause substantial further damage throughout the San Gabriel Valley, perhaps increasing the financial losses and deaths by 20% to 30%, the U.S. Geological Survey said in the 2008 report. San Francisco Bay area: Within the next 30 years the probability is: The peak accelerations from the Northridge earthquake were much larger (e.g. Los Angeles, Elliott: Kings use their heads over hearts in trading Jonathan Quick, Sherman Oaks Notre Dame overcomes deficit to win Mission League opener, Snowboarder dies at South Lake Tahoe resort, California to alter COVID rules in healthcare settings: Masks and vaccinations not required, Welcome to the world, baby Winter, born amid a snowstorm in Lake Arrowhead, Gripped by grace: Thousands gather for Bishop OConnells funeral Mass, Civilian oversight commission calls for sheriff to outlaw deputy gangs, ban their rituals. The region has faults that run through areas with thousands of buildings and millions of people. But California earthquake predictions in 2014 have scientists claiming there could be a future disaster. Littlerock WHY THEY DONT WANT YOU TO KNOW WHAT BOOKS THE NAZIS BURNED, New Year in London: Praise for the Genocidal Murderers of Ukraine. Here are more detailed descriptions of each Not really. Electricity in Southern California could be out for days. 9.2 km from Retrospectively we can say, OK, the 7.8 stressed the fault on which the 7.5 occurred, he said. 4.2 km from . The scenario is a hypothetical yet scientifically realistic earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during a, ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Search Earthquakes Near You ( Relative2Me ). Earthquake early warning systems have been part of life in metropolises like Tokyo, Taipei and Mexico City for years. For the best choice of CEA earthquake insurance policies,select deductibles from 5%-25%.CEA works with 25 residentialinsurance companies that serve the majority of California homeowners. (5.2 miles), 2023-02-23 00:13:05 UTC Winter storm forecast to reach East Coast after crossing the country. Los Angeles newsroom shakes live on air as earthquake hits California, Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in, Please refresh your browser to be logged in, China mourns heroic Strong-Willed Pig that survived earthquake after it dies of old age, Earth Quake In Turkey: Teams bring in listening equipment, Watch US Navy trial causing earthquake after blasting 18 tonnes of explosives in Atlantic, Assam earthquake: Damage reported as magnitude 6.4 tremor hits northeast India. What is the likelihood of a large earthquake at location X? Earthquake damage would include destroyed freeways because Interstate 10 crosses the San Andreas in a dozen places; fires from broken gas lines; damage to the water supply; and disruption to interstate high-voltage power lines through the Cajon Pass. Mekahlo Medina reports for Today in LA on Wednesday Jan. 25, 2023. How are they used? The sensor network has reached target density in the Los Angeles, San Francisco Bay and Seattle metro regions and version 2.0 . City data show that only two of L.A.s 1,337 brittle concrete buildings have received certificates of compliance showing they meet the standards of the retrofit law. at 06:05 February 11, 2023 UTC, Location: The Bay Area native is a graduate of UC Berkeley and started at the Los Angeles Times in 2004. san francisco earthquake prediction. at 03:09 February 18, 2023 UTC, Location: Epicenter at 34.216, -117.417 Epicenter at 34.301, -117.031 Epicenter at 34.251, -118.652 Epicenter at 34.443, -119.0 Epicenter at 34.115, -117.458 2023-03-03 17:10:36 UTC JPL experts predict a possible 5.0 magnitude quake in Los Angeles, but say it very well could be stronger. Strongest earthquake in the past 24 hours. The 5.4-magnitude quake was centered about 30 miles south of Eureka. When the Big One hits, will Californians be ready for a lack of modern communication connections? Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Fontana According to The ShakeOut Scenario, a 7.8 earthquake hitting along the southern San Andreas fault on a non-windy day at about 9:00 a.m. will unfold, approximately, like this: 1,800 people will. Casa Conejo A hospital collapsed in the Mediterranean coastal city of Iskanderoun, according to the Associated Press. How likely is Big One earthquake to hit after recent LA tremors? The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes that hit Southern California were felt as far away as Las Vegas and Arizona. Fontana Chance of 1 or more M6.7 or greater earthquakes striking CA*. An official website of the United States government. Look up: The 32 most spectacular ceilings in Los Angeles, This fabled orchid breeder loves to chat just not about Trader Joes orchids, Newsom, IRS give Californians until October to file tax returns, Best coffee city in the world? The plate is moving slowly all the time, but the edges move in fits and starts. This may be the best chance to prevent further injury in case of an aftershock. Scientists are analyzing the disaster for clues about the potential strength and location of future West Coast quakes. Californians have been waiting for the quake they . Earthquakes strike without warning, at any time of year, day or night. Located 30 miles from downtown Los Angeles, the Southern San Andreas fault could produce a magnitude 7 earthquake or greater that would heavily shake the nations second largest city. Earthquake early warning app for Los Angeles . In a Continue reading California Earthquake . Major utilities such as gas, power and cell service would likely be severely compromised. IV. Narrator: On July 4, 2019, Ridgecrest, California, was hit with a 6.4 magnitude earthquake and then a 7.1 just one day later. (6.2 miles), 2023-02-18 10:33:48 UTC So for a 7.8 earthquake, we would expect a 6.8 magnitude. At 7.5, the aftershock was more than 10 times stronger than the largest expected one. 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