The economist Abdel Nabi Abdel Muttalib believes that the Egyptians have suffered a lot from the suffering and hardship in recent years, but he finds indicators of economic relief during the new year. The resulting polarisation has encouraged mounting political violence from the Islamic State (ISIS) and other violent groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula where a low-level insurgency has raged. The Demographic Situation. IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, October 2020. Zawya: website containing economic information on the Middle East. Introductory Offer - expires 11:59 pm 9/9/2020 See the country risk analysis provided by Coface. He expected the trade balance of fuel to continue to achieve a surplus due to an increase in exports of oil and its products, which could lead to a decrease in the trade balance deficit as a whole. Professor of Dams Engineering in Malaysia Mohamed Hafez says it is expected that the Renaissance Dam will be opened informally during the annual celebrations of the ninth anniversary of its founding in April. The main crops are cereals, cotton, sugar cane and beetroots. The current political system was established following the Egyptian Revolution of 2011 and the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak.In the current system, the President is elected for a six-year term, where they are able to appoint up to 5 percent of the parliament. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. They featured low turnout, intimidation, and abuse of state resources. Egypt Economic Outlook. The President may dissolve the House of Representatives. Since a July 2013 military coup, Egypt has sought to reassert state authority undermined by the 2011 uprising at the expense of political inclusion, especially of the Muslim Brotherhood. To find out about the latest status of the COVID-19 pandemic evolution and the most up-to-date statistics on the COVID-19 disease in Egypt, consult the daily statistics published by the WHO.For the international outlook you can consult the latest situation reports published by the World Health Organisation. Posted at 18:48 10 Dec 2020 18:48 10 Dec 2020 Italy accuses Egypt agents over student's murder Italian prosecutors accuse four Egyptian officers over the 2016 murder of a Cambridge student. Source: Hafiz suggested that the government would deal if Ethiopia agreed to the 35 billion cubic meters and extend the storage period of the dam to seven years as it had achieved an important victory, and would try to persuade the citizens to stop farming for most of the local products and expand the water desalination projects. He added that Cairo had concluded an agreement with Tel Aviv whereby it would import the first of the latter natural gas, and continued, "In front of the many discoveries of gas fields, I expected to export gas surpluses, but the government demolished all expectations of the agreement to import gas from Israel.". In Egypt, the Coronavirus Poses a Political Threat The pandemic has exposed the shortfalls of a government that has neglected the health sector for too long. Egypt’s economic freedom score is 54.0, making its economy the 142nd freest in the 2020 Index. DRC: beyond consultations, the standoff between Félix Tshisekedi and Joseph Kabila, Egypt refers the issue of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam to the UN Security Council, Libya file and water security fears ... economic risks that might reduce money flows to Egypt, Pink swings crossing Mexico and the United States rewarded, U.S. elections: divisions will impact U.S. economy. For the latest economic outlook due to the Covid-19 pandemic, please consult the OECD Economic Outlook Interim Report Coronavirus (Covid-19): Living with uncertainty and the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19 for the key economic responses from governments. In spite of economic diversification efforts, the country continues to depend on the Suez Canal for a large part of its foreign income. Toxic growth .. This expected step, despite the technical problems with the dam, was justified by Hafez by trying to ensure that the ruling coalition won the presidency of the current Ethiopian Prime Minister in the elections. Its overall score has increased by 1.5 points, primarily because of a higher property rights score. In June 2020, Egypt adopted an economic reform program supported by a 12-month Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) with the IMF. The authorities continued to severely restrict human rights organizations’ and political parties’ freedom of association. Tools and resources to help your company expand globally, In this page: In particular, demographic changes and economic trends continue to evolve in ways that have the potential to increase unrest. The parliament described the European Parliament’s decision as "politicized and unbalanced". Strengthen entry restrictions. In this, Al-Houfi mentioned Qatar Petroleum Company's announcement last November to operate a refinery project in Mostorod, north of Cairo. Egypt’s public prosecutor has cleared five policemen of responsibility in the 2016 murder of Italian student Giulio Regeni and said he will not pursue the case because the perpetrator is unknown. He expected that the new formation of the government would achieve the missing cooperation between its members, as this would be reflected in the increase in growth and development rates. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. Inflation rate should decrease to 5.9% in 2020 and increase to 8.2% in 2021, according to the latest World Economic Outlook of the IMF (April 2020). Please check the spelling. Political news headlines, in-depth politics coverage and political opinion, plus breaking news on Egypt, Africa, MENA region, and world affairs. • The unemployment rate declined to a decade low of 7.5% in June 2019, compared to 11.1% in 2018, before slightly rising to 7.9% at 2019’s end. Political stability in Egypt is a function of a complex set of factors, not all of which are in the hands of the government or the opposition. It is largely dominated by revenues from telecommunications and tourism sectors. or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.). Despite this slowdown, Egypt was one of the few countries with positive growth rate in 2020. Leading political figures, including Zyad el-Elaimy, Hisham Fouad and Hossam Moanis, were arrested to stop them founding a coalition to contest the 2020 parliamentary elections.In September and October, police arrested several members from five political … Santander, Santander Trade and the Flame logo are registered trademarks. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The legislative power is bicameral since the constitutional referendum of 2019 was approved by the House of Representatives in June 2020. The House of Representatives is composed of 596 members elected for a period of 5 years by universal suffrage. Learn more about Market Analyses about Egypt on Globaltrade.net, the Directory for International Trade Service Providers. By Anonymous | April 30, 2020… The former military spokesman for the armed forces, Brigadier General Mohamed Samir, did not expect that when he was writing an article criticising the political situation in Egypt, his words would drag him into woes at a time when no one is allowed to express his opinion, criticise a situation, or even warn of the danger the country is facing. That seemingly optimistic vision of the future of the economy is reversed by Mustafa Shaheen, professor of economics at American University of Oakland, who found several indications of economic suffering that Egyptians will experience during the year 2020. Official turnout was also much lower than the previous election, around 41%. CAIRO — Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said Dec. 9 that his country is working toward a comprehensive political solution to the Libyan crisis. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms. The amendments consolidate authoritarian rule, undermine the judiciary’s dwindling independence, and expand the military’s power to intervene in political life. Report It to Us. The sector has historically been important for Egypt, and it accounts for about 20% of total exports and foreign exchange earnings. Currently, Egypt’s annual share of the Nile water is fifty billion cubic meters, which means an estimated deficit of 19 billion cubic meters. Although the President Gamal Abdel Nasser banned all political opposition, in a monopoly of power within the Arab Socialist Union (ASU), his successor, Anwar Sadat . And Shaheen spoke of the absence of any indication of the improvement of the deficit of the state budget, which means the continuing deterioration of the economic situation. November 3, 2020. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. Does the IMF carry deceptive messages to the Egyptians? Egypt's teeming cities - and almost all agricultural activity - are concentrated along the banks of the Nile, and on the river's delta. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi ordered parliament to freeze its activities on 1 October 2019 and placed the National Security Agency (NSA) in charge of creating lists of candidates as the General Intelligence Directorate (GID) had not satisfactorily selected candidates in the previous election. The government is also targeting GDP growth at 2% for FY 2020/21. Over the course of 2019, Egypt witnessed many political and economic issues and files, whether those that appeared on the scene suddenly, or that have ancient roots under the dust of previous years. The main challenger was arrested, prompting other challengers to withdraw their campaign on possible grounds of intimidation. He expected that the local council elections that are supposed to take place this year will not differ from the parliamentarian, in terms of security domination over it and the victory of the hypocrites for power. Domestic demand and foreign inflows will be hit as the economy and external finances weaken in 2020/21, but growth will recover to about 5% thereafter. It appears as the most resilient sector in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. On the issue of reconciliation with Qatar, Ahmed Rami al-Hofy, a leader in the Freedom and Justice Party that is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, predicted a slow and gradual reconciliation between Doha and Riyadh only without the rest of the countries including Egypt. For the up-to-date information on possible support plans for exporters in Egypt, if applicable, please consult the website of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry. Likewise, Ethiopia’s acquisition of $ 9 billion from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund - alongside the UAE and Saudi Arabia - will be a major reason for Addis Ababa's announcement that construction of the second upper dam over the Renaissance Dam will begin. Al-Koumi went on to talk about the repercussions of events in Libya, expecting that Turkey's intervention would change all the balance of the equation in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Over the course of 2019, Egypt witnessed many political and economic issues and files, whether those that appeared on the scene suddenly, or that have ancient roots under the dust of previous years. The Egyptian economy was supported by the allocation of EGP 100 billion, representing 2% of the GDP (Egypt Oil & Gas). Nonetheless, it is estimated that three-quarters of all employees are paid as unofficial workers, and 32.5% of the population lives below the poverty line (state statistics agency CAPMAS). Cairo - 18 December 2020: Egypt's House of Representatives refused in a statement, Friday the European Parliament’s resolution on the human rights situation in Egypt. To find out about the latest public health situation in the Egypt and the current sanitary measures in vigour, please consult the dedicated page on the website of the, For information on the travel restrictions undertaken by the Egyptian government, please refer to the website of the, For the up-to-date information on all the measures applicable to movement of goods during the period of sanitary emergency due to the COVID-19 outbreak (including eventual restrictions on imports and exports, if applicable), please consult the website of the. The IMF expects the unemployment rate to be affected by the negative economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the rate being currently estimated to increase to 9.7% in 2021 and 2022. Economic Outline | Source: 2019 Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation. The future situation will get worse, as the dam expert expects that Egypt will not get 35 billion cubic meters, explaining that the formula for Nile water users has entered new partners and they are Arab Gulf countries who have invested huge funds in purchasing seven million acres located near the course of the Blue Nile. And because the threads of those issues did not touch its end after the finish line, it seems that the year 2020 will be full of repercussions and consequences that will affect the political and economic scenes. Source: Freedom in the World 2019, Freedom House. Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage. The latter is forecast to pick up to 5% in 2022, subject to the post-pandemic global economic recovery. By continuing your navigation on our website. Prosecutors reject Italy’s finding that Egyptian security officials were behind kidnap and torture Published: 30 Dec 2020 . The economic files that the government faces and the citizens suffer from are many, varied and have repercussions during the new year, and analysts see them in an optimistic framework, while others refuted the risks that await them. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the services surplus declined by 31.2% to USD 9.0 billion (from USD 13.0 billion), mainly as a result of the decrease in tourism revenues. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure. The latest breaking news, comment and features from The Independent. 2019 World Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders, Political freedom in the world (interactive map), World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19, Ministry of International Trade and Industry. In the past two decades, employment growth in Egypt has failed to keep up with the growth of the working age population. Alibaba: Economic portal on the Middle East. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) On the monetary side, Abdel-Muttalib suggested reducing the interest rate and stabilizing the pound exchange rate against the dollar, ruling that the price would decrease below 15 pounds against the dollar. For the up-to-date information on all the measures applicable to movement of goods during the period of sanitary emergency due to the COVID-19 outbreak (including eventual restrictions on imports and exports, if applicable), please consult the website of the Egyptian Customs Authority (in Arabic).For a general overview of trade restrictions due to COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Egypt on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage. In 2020, Egypt's economy was impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, but proactive measures taken to address health and social needs and support the most directly affected sectors helped mitigate the economic and human impact of the crisis (IMF). For the information on the local business support scheme established by the Egyptian government, consult the dedicated page on KPMG’s website.For a general overview of international SME support policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak refer to the OECD's SME Covid-19 Policy Responses document.You can also consult the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19. Finally, the services sector represents 50.5% of the Egyptian GDP and employs nearly half of the population (49%). It should remain under control despite an expected increase to 6.2% in 2021 and 7.9% in 2022. In an interview with the French paper Le Figaro , Sisi responded to a question on a potential military faceoff between Egypt and Turkey in Libya, saying, “Egypt will never initiate an attack . The last elections for the House of Representatives took place in two stages in 2015. restored some competition in the political arena, through introducting a new Constitution in 1971. Egypt's non-oil industry remains rather limited. The State has a presidential system of Government. He explained that the central bank supported the appreciation of the pound against the dollar during the last months of the past year, adding that if this government-made rise continues, prices are likely to decrease, especially associated with imported goods. Therefore, Shaheen expected that the government will continue to close the door to many imported goods, in order to avoid entering into a new crisis due to the high value of the dollar against the pound. The politics of Egypt are based on republicanism, with a semi-presidential system of government. Economic activity appears to have improved somewhat in recent months, following a 1.7% year-on-year contraction in Q2 (Q1: +5.0% yoy). Political parties faced arbitrary restrictions on their work, such as organizing public events, and increasing arrests of their members. Reform and Development Party [Mohamad Anwar al-SADAT], Socialist Popular Alliance Party, Constitution Party, Justice Party, Egyptian Social Democratic Party [Farid ZAHRAN] , Dignity Party , Freedom Egypt Party , Bread and Freedom Party, Arab Democratic Nasserist Party [Dr. Mohamed ABDUL ELLA], Arab Party for Justice and Equality, Democratic Generation Party, Democratic Peace Party [Ahmed FADALY], Egyptian Arab Socialist Party, Egyptian National Movement Party [Gen. Raouf EL SAYED] , My Homeland Egypt Party [Gen. Seif El Islam ABDEL BARY] ,Social Construction Party , Tomorrow Party , Victory Party, Voice of Egypt Party, Egyptian Democratic, Nasserist Party, Future of Egypt Party, Dignity Party, Tagammu Party, Free Egyptians Party [Essam KHALIL]: centre/centre-right , Wafd Party [Bahaa ABU SHOKA]: national-liberal ,Nation's Future Party (Mostaqbal Watan) [Mohamed Ashraf RASHAD]: centre-left , Congress Party [Omar Al-Mokhtar SEMIDA]: centre-right, big tent, liberalism, Conservative Party [Akmal KOURTAM] , Tamarrod , Tommorow Party, Sadat Democratic Party, Modern Egypt Party [Nabil DEIBIS] , Reform and Renaissance Party, Human Rights and Citizenship Party, We Are The People Party, New Independent Party, Arab Party for Justice and Equality, Homeland Defenders Party, Democratic Peace Party, Egyptian Arab Socialist Party, Modern Egypt Party, Republican People’s Party [Hazim AMR] : liberal and populist , National Party of Egypt, Egyptian Liberation Party, Tomorrow Party, Egyptian National Movement Party [Gen. Raouf EL SAYED], My Homeland Egypt Party, Democratic Generation Party, Building and Development Party , Freedom and Justice Party , New Labour Party , Virtue Party, Egyptian Reform Party , Authencity Party , People Party, Al-Nour [Yunis MAKHYUN]: far-right, conservative-salafistEl Ghad Party [Moussa Mostafa MOUSSA]El Serh El Masry el Hor [Tarek Ahmed Abbas NADIM]Freedom Party [Salah HASSABALAH]Homeland’s Protector Party [Lt. Gen. (retired) Galal AL-HARIDI]: populistNational Progressive Unionist (Tagammu) Party [Sayed Abdel AAL]Revolutionary Guards Party [Magdy EL-SHARIF]. | COVID-19 Country Response. For an overview of the tax measures that have been adopted, refer to the PWC website.For the general overview of the key economic policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak (fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic) taken by the Egyptian government to limit the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Egypt in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform. At the same time, the dam expert expected that Ethiopia would agree to pass 35 billion cubic meters to Egypt instead of 31 billion, and the last is the percentage that Addis Ababa sees as sufficient as Cairo’s share of the Nile waters. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. He expected Qatar to not retract its political position with Egypt, but with regard to the economic file between the two countries, it seems that it is beyond the regional problems. Heshmat expected to expose the aims of what he called the axis of evil in the Islamic world and to expose his affairs to the people. The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). The progovernment coalition For the Love of Egypt, consisting of some 10 parties, won all 120 bloc-vote seats. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. Your country was not recognised. [3] In 2020, the Suez Canal Authority generated USD 5.61 billion revenues (Egypt Oil&Gas). But government support for the pound will, in turn, require continued borrowing, which means increased internal and external debt. It started improving again during Q1 2020 and was recorded at 7.7%. In turn, Dr. Jamal Heshmat, the former Undersecretary of the Foreign Relations Committee in Parliament, said that the political files witnessed a catastrophic failure and great deterioration due to the absence of real change, and the continued survival of what he described as the ruling gang exercising repression on citizens. World Bank, Latest available data. © Export Entreprises SA, All Rights Reserved. published by the World Health Organisation. Egypt’s presidential elections of March 2018 posed little challenge to incumbent Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi being re-elected with 97% of votes, after all serious opposition contenders halted their campaign two months before the election. Macroeconomic performance and outlook Economic growth in Egypt, estimated at 5.6% for 2019, is forecast to strengthen to 5.8% in 2020 and 6% in 2021, supported by broad-based economic reform programs since 2016. According to Abd al-Muttalib, there are data and indicators issued by local and international sources, expecting that in 2020 there will be an increase in growth rates, and low inflation rates to the lowest level, and this is likely to lead to a reduction in interest rates, which will contribute to increasing investment and employment rates. For information on the travel restrictions undertaken by the Egyptian government, please refer to the website of the US embassy in Egypt and to EgyptOnlineVisa.For the international outlook you can consult the latest travel updates available on the IATA website. According to IMF estimates, GDP growth fell from 5.6% in 2019 to 3.5% in 2020, and is expected to further drop to 2.8% in 2021. Egypt drops inquiry into murder of Italian student Giulio Regeni. In 2020, the budget deficit increased slightly to -7.5% of GDP (from -7.2%), and is expected to widen to -8.5% in 2021 before decreasing again in 2022 (-5.7%) thanks to economic recovery. The same with the projects of the new administrative capital and the new city of El Alamein, as they are an attempt to absorb excess liquidity among citizens by purchasing housing units and lands. Only Stratfor tells you what's going on, why it matters & what's happening next Take The Offer - Subscribe Today. Inflation has been declining since end-2019 and has remained rather contained, registering an average of 5.7% in the fiscal year 2020 (from an average 19.6% in the previous three), reflecting subdued demand and the general decline of global commodity prices, including oil. Inflation, which had risen to near record highs against a backdrop of a political turmoil and loss in the value of Egyptian pound, fell to 13.9% in 2019, from 20.9% the previous year. PMI data for September indicated the first overall increase in non-oil private sector activity in 14 months, driven by an uptick in consumer demand. As for the development projects promoted by the Authority, the economic analyst said that it is not linked to an actual need to have value and return, and set an example of the Suez Canal subvention project, which cost the government about eight billion dollars without increasing the revenues of the channel despite its opening five years ago. All rights reserved. On April 22, 2019, Egyptians cast their votes on the latest amendments, that include extending the presidential term of office from four to six years, and increasing the current president's term, assuring that Sisi will remain in office until 2030. Public debt-to-GDP ratio increased to 86.6% in 2020 (from 83.8%) and is expected to reach 90.6% in 2021 before declining again in 2022 (to 87.8%). The Renaissance Dam .. Agreement to continue the tripartite negotiations under the auspices of the African Union, The balance of power, militarily and economically, is ahead of Egypt, and Ethiopia is challenging. In addition, before the pandemic, the country was already in a strong position as it had implemented an economic reform program comprising fiscal consolidation measures, the introduction of a floating exchange rate and large cuts in subsidies. Elections for both chambers were scheduled for 2020. After having recovered from the internal political crisis and revolutionary uprising of 2011, the Egyptian economy recently slowed down due to the outbreak of the COVID-19. 90 per cent of people unemployed are under the age of 30, and unemployment has reached an unprecedented new high of 31.3 per cent of the active youth population. Therefore, any incident related to the contents or services must be resolved between the user and Export Entreprises S.A.; with no involvement or responsibility from Banco Santander, S.A. or any of its subsidiaries. IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, President: Abdel fattah El-Sisi (since June 2014 ; re-elected for a second term in March 2018), Prime Minister: Mostafa Madbouli (since June 2018). Political Outline Source: The Economist - Business Environment Rankings 2014-2018. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, Egypt announced record oil production levels, exceeding 650,000 barrels per day. Female youth unemployment remains very high (48% in 2018 according to IMF). Source: 2019 World Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders. The official unemployment rate, after reaching its highest level in the past 11 years in 2015, has been declining slowly since then and fell to around 8.3% in 2020 according to IMF estimates. Agriculture contributes 11% of the GDP (World Bank, 2019) and employs 23% of the active population (World Bank, 2020). For the information on the economic recovery scheme put in place by the local government to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Egyptian economy, please visit the dedicated page on KPMG’s website as well as the website of the Central Bank of Egypt (in Arabic). Parliamentary: 2020 Current Political Context Egypt’s presidential elections of March 2018 posed little challenge to incumbent Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi being re-elected with 97% of votes, after all serious opposition contenders halted their campaign two months before the election. The Central Bank of Egypt slashed policy rates by a cumulative 350 basis-points since March 2020 to ease liquidity. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Published Feb. 11, 2020 Updated Feb. 25, 2020 CAIRO — Somewhere in Egypt, around lunchtime Tuesday, the country reached a major milestone: its 100 millionth citizen was born. Political and economic experts talked about Al-Jazeera Net about the most important issues that will witness an escalation during the new year, expecting the effects that it will have on the general scene, negatively and positively. On the level of domestic political issues and related to international parties, they are likely to escalate rapidly and sometimes to ignite. Al-Koumi expected that the only change in the upcoming elections would be to transfer her administration from the National Security Agency to the intelligence services, adding that "nothing will change except for pumping new blood from the litmus in Parliament, especially with the emergence of the second chamber, which is the Senate.". To find out about the latest public health situation in the Egypt and the current sanitary measures in vigour, please consult the dedicated page on the website of the US embassy in Egypt. In Egypt, there are 8 different active political alliances based on their religious and political orientation.

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